Review of aluminum profile manufacturers: qiansiwan aluminum looks forward to new life

striking one snag after another

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APS industrial aluminum profile

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Review of aluminum profile manufacturers: qiansiwan aluminum looks forward to new life

striking one snag after another

2017-04-17

17:22

Source: APS industrial aluminum profiles

Original title: aluminum profile manufacturers re carding: qiansiwan aluminum looks forward to new life

striking one snag after another

Review of aluminum profile manufacturers: qiansiwan aluminum looks forward to new life

After twists and turns, you will win

The domestic bauxite price is maintained at 200-280 yuan / ton, while the port bauxite price is 280-420 yuan / ton, which is caused by different bauxite quality and transportation costs. From a global perspective, the supply of bauxite is relatively sufficient with great potential for substitution. It is expected that the price of bauxite will not change greatly in the future.

Looking back from the present point of time: we believe that the price of alumina will decline to a certain extent due to the increase of operating rate and the end of replenishment cycle in the short term; however, in the medium and long term, the overall profit of domestic industry will decline due to the capacity utilization rate of alumina industry lower than the world average level, so the implementation of capacity reduction policy will help to resolve the excess capacity of alumina industry, At the same time, environmental protection and production restriction will reduce the operating rate of alumina enterprises, and the supply will bear certain pressure. In the later stage, alumina may benefit from the implementation of policies to promote the price to a certain high level.

According to Aladdin website statistics, if the implementation of environmental protection and production restriction policy in the heating season will lead to a reduction of about 5 million tons of alumina; at the same time, according to Antaike statistics, the new production capacity in 2017 will be 6 million tons. As most of the production capacity is put into production in the second half of the year, the new increment of alumina is expected to be 3 million tons. Further hypothesis: the net import of alumina is stable at 3 million tons, and the output of electrolytic aluminum maintains a growth rate of 6.5% (the downstream demand of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, see the text explanation). Based on this, the supply and demand gap of alumina in 2017 will reach 2.45 million tons.

The policy of "de capacity + environmental protection and production restriction" will still affect the supply of coal, alumina, http: / / baking anode and electrolytic aluminum auxiliary materials. This influence will also be transmitted to the production of electrolytic aluminum. At the same time, the impact of environmental protection and production restriction of electrolytic aluminum itself will be superimposed. The price of electrolytic aluminum will rise to a certain high level with the rise of cost after a short period of decline in the future.

According to the consensus expectation: the real estate development and construction will maintain a growth rate of about 5%, the investment scale of electric power related fields will maintain a growth rate of 3%, and the automobile output will maintain a growth rate of about 6%. Assuming that the other downstream consumption applications of aluminum remain unchanged, and considering the new demand of aluminum in the field of new energy vehicles + rail transit + lightweight, we believe that the aluminum consumption demand can maintain a growth rate of about 6%. With the slowdown of Chinas economic growth, aluminum downstream demand into a more balanced state. In the future, we will pay more attention to the new growth of aluminum brought by new energy vehicles, rail transit and lightweight. Go back to Sohu to see more

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Statement: This article only represents the author himself. Sohu is an information publishing platform. Sohu only provides information storage space service.

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